تقدير سرعة تداول النقود في الاقتصاد الليبي: بين النظرية الكمية للنقود والصدمات السياسية خلال الفترة (1970م- 2025م).
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65422/sajfas.v2i2.393الكلمات المفتاحية:
سرعه تداول النقود ، النظرية الكمية ، عرض النقود، سعر الصرف الموازي، الاقتصاد الليبي، الصدمات السياسية.الملخص
The study estimates the velocity of money in the Libyan economy for the period (1970 – 2025) using the quantity theory of money framework while accounting for political and security shocks. Data were sourced from the World Bank and the parallel exchange rate was estimated using purchasing power parity with a monetary adjustment factor of 0.3 Velocity of circulation was calculated using the equation V equals GDP divided by M2 Results indicate an average velocity of 3.02 times during the 1970s phase followed by a sharp decline to 2.67 times in 2011
The findings project a gradual recovery in velocity reaching 4.10 times by 2024 A strong negative relationship exists between money supply and velocity with a correlation coefficient of approximately negative 0.85 reflecting liquidity hoarding The study concludes that the traditional quantity theory fails to explain Libyan monetary phenomena and recommends reforming monetary policy tools amid institutional division.
