Modeling and Monitoring Urban Expansion and Service Inequality Using GIS-Based Spatial Analysis and Urban Morphology Indicators: A Case Study of Tripoli, Libya

Abstract

Libyan cities have changed fast because of quick growth. This growth often happened without strong planning. It created worries about urban sprawl and unfair service access. This study builds a GIS method to track these changes in Tripoli, Libya. We use open data on city form, land cover, and settlement patterns. We also use locations of public services. We measure how Tripoli grew and where services are missing. Satellite images and spatial measures show strong built-up growth in four decades. Sprawl became stronger in the 2000s. Shannon entropy rose from 0.74 in 1984 to 0.90 in 2010. This rise shows growth became more spread out. At the same time, new edge areas gained people but not enough services. Many residents travel longer for health care and schools. We combine OpenStreetMap service points with population grids. Then we map service gaps and find areas with weak coverage. Results show a clear pattern of service inequality. Unplanned growth zones have fewer hospitals, schools, and utilities per person. Central planned districts have better service levels. This GIS method helps planners see growth shape and service gaps. It also supports better planning decisions. We end with policy steps for better growth control. We suggest guided expansion and focused service investment. These steps can support fair and stable growth in Tripoli and similar cities.