Economic Analysis of Olive Oil Production and Consumption in Libya

Abstract

The research aimed to: study the development of the quantity of production of olive oil and production of olives in Libya, study the development of food security indicators from olive oil in Libya, estimate the consumption function of olive oil, and estimate the production function of olive oil, during the period (2000 - 2019). In addition to predicting self-sufficiency rates in olive oil using the ARIMA model, the research to achieve its objectives relied on published data and information by reviewing books, periodicals and references related to the subject of the research. It also relied on published secondary data for the period 2000-2019 issued by the official authorities in Libya. It is represented by the General Authority for Statistics and Census, reports and bulletins issued by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, the Central Bank of Libya, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, and the International Olive Council.

   The most important findings of the research were: There was a significant increase at an annual increase rate of about 293.57 liters in the amount of olive oil production, with an increasing annual change rate of 1.89%, and also a significant decrease with an annual increase rate of about 1136.74 kilograms in the amount of olive production, at a rate of An increasing annual change of -1.38%, and the average imports of olive oil amounted to about 2213 litres, the average available olive oil for consumption amounted to 17734 litres, the average local consumption of olive oil amounted to 15572.23 litres, and the average per capita share of local production amounted to 2558.63 litres/ year, the average gap between production and consumption was 51.14 liters, the average self-sufficiency rate in olive oil during the study period was about 99.5%, the average daily local consumption of olive oil was about 42.66 liters, and the average change in the value of the food security factor for olive oil was about -0.09, and by estimating the consumption function of olive oil, it has been confirmed statistically that there is a direct relationship between the average annual per capita consumption of olive oil and both the average annual per capita income, the amount of imports of olive oil, and the number of population as it increases, and by estimating the production function of olive oil It has been statistically confirmed that there is a direct relationship between the average production of olive oil and both the quantity of local production of olives and the price of olive oil.