Geographical Evaluation of the Efficiency of Health Indicators for Sokna Rural Hospital

Abstract

This study aimed to monitor and evaluate the status of health indicators at Sokna Rural Hospital for the year 2025, and to geographically forecast its future infrastructure and human resource requirements up to 2035. The study adopted a descriptive-analytical approach along with quantitative and spatial planning tools. The demographic forecast was built upon the 2025 estimated population of 13,172, projected to 2030 and 2035 using a precisely calculated annual geometric growth rate of 1.52%.

The results indicated a steady population increase, projected to reach 14,204 by 2030 and approximately 15,316 by 2035. Projecting these demographic estimates onto local and international planning standards revealed a stark structural discrepancy between theoretical quantitative indicators and actual operational realities. Currently, Sokna Rural Hospital suffers from a critical and severe bed deficit of 85% (possessing only 10 beds against a target standard of 66), creating a future planning gap that demands an urgent, phased expansion plan to add 67 beds by 2035. Furthermore, the findings indicated a projected gradual deficit of 4 general practitioners by 2035, and an immediate operational-spatial deficit in the dentistry sector requiring the recruitment of 3 dentists to effectively secure shift rotations within existing facilities. Conversely, the study demonstrated a substantial and sustainable quantitative surplus up to 2035 in pharmacists (14), technical nurses (45), and allied health professionals (134), significantly exceeding both local standards and World Health Organization guidelines by far.

The  study recommended adopting a flexible planning strategy based on two integrated tracks: first, an "urgent intervention track to bridge critical gaps" through physical bed expansion and targeted medical recruitment; and second, an "administrative investment and spatial equity track" designed to geographically redistribute and localize the surplus staff (nurses, pharmacists, and allied health professionals), shifting the planning focus from numerical employment to continuous technical training and sustainable capacity building to cover the city's outskirts and ensure service efficiency.