Italian Foreign Policy Trends Towards the Crisis in Libya: An Analytical Study

Abstract

This study analyzes the trends of Italian foreign policy towards the Libyan crisis between 2011 and 2024. The research problem stems from the rapid geopolitical and security shifts in Libya following the regime change in 2011, alongside the interference of competing regional and international powers, which threatened Italy's historical strategic interests and led to initial diplomatic ambiguity before adopting a flexible containment strategy. The study tests a primary hypothesis stating that Italy's foreign policy goals toward Libya remain constant and fixed, driven by vital determinants that do not change with the succession of political regimes. Utilizing an analytical approach, the researcher examines three main pillars: the Libyan political process, illegal migration, and the security of energy sources (oil and gas)

The study yields several key findings: Italy pragmatically deploys Its diplomatic and political tools to maintain a balance among local conflicting factions, ensuring its status as a key actor In the face of European competition, particularly from France. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that the 2008 Treaty of Friendship and Partnership remains the baseline reference and legal framework for all subsequent security agreements and Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) signed with successive interim governments to curb migration influxes. In the energy sector, Italian policy pursues a dual-track strategy; engaging officially with transItional governments in Tripoli to seal agreements—culminating in the historic 2023 gas deal—while cautiously engaging with non-official actors, such as local tribes and armed groups, to secure it's Infrastructure and supply lines.